The Article below shows us what has been simmering under the surface all during the rainy season from May until now. The government forces and rebels are getting ready for the greatest clash of the Twenty-First Century. Please surround our beloved Chad in prayer at this time, that on the other side of all these troubles, Chad will find the peace and stability she so desperately needs...October 7 (www.tchadactuel.com):
The Season of All Possible Hazards
The rainy season is over and everyone looks to the East. They are not to examining the sky to see if there will be rain or not. Rather, it is to try to discover when the "contact" between President Déby and the rebels will take place with its trail of misery for all Chadians. This "contact" will certainly happen, and both sides are preparing ardently. The rebels claimed that at the end of the rainy season, they will go hunting for Déby. As for President Déby, he has even suggested a date: October. Déby stated clearly in Amdjeress that his objective is to chase Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir out of power, and then he the rebels will disappear all by themselves.
Both sides are full of confidence and assurance. Déby has a serenity that he did not know before. The rebels say he is just putting a good face on a bad situation. While Déby has amassed an impressive armada of light and heavy weapons, transport planes, bombers, helicopters with night vision capabilities, etc... He has also sent all his war resources (physical and human) to the east. He has also invested heavily in buying consciences, both those of individuals and of ethnic groups. He does not skimp on ways and means, for he has plenty of them! Déby has allowed himself a stroll in Amdjeress, a region with a strong RFC presence. The rebels sneer, "Indeed, it is easy to go to Amdjeress when all the wadis are uncrossable because of the wetness of the season." In this rosy picture, there are few shady areas.
First of all, there is a perceptible tension within the President's family, along with various speculations: Déby reportedly escaped an assassination attempt, a palace revolution is apparently underway, and so on. Then his ally the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) is not in great shape because numerous deserters are bleeding out of their ranks, along with a strong lack of morale within the JEM ranks who are tired of being the mercenaries of Déby. There has been changes within the mobile regiment, Déby's shock troops. Tahir Erda, the Commander of the regiment, has been recalled to N'Djamena and has been replaced by a cousin of President Déby. He claims that this is simply a tactical decision because Tahir has remained long on the eastern front. Tahir Erda is the heart and lungs of the Déby defense forces. His being recalled from the eastern front just when the battle is about to begin is not at all a "tactical decision". Nor was the dismissal of Houno Abeguer Gouna a tactical decision, who is a strong fighter who is well known within the clan for not being afraid of a fight. We also learned that Déby's entourage when he traveled to Amdjeress asked permission to behead Younousmi. General Mahamat Saleh Brahim, the heat of the GNNT supported by Daoussa, is all the more determined to behead him, because he bluntly accuses Younousmi of being the principal financial donor for the rebellion! What a rat Younousmi is: as he provides financial help to Déby, he also provides financial backing to the rebellion! In another sign of impending shadows, desertions have resumed with a vengeance. There is not a day that goes by when at least one government soldier walks away and joins one of the rebel forces, often he bringing his vehicle with him. To close the brackets on the dark side of the troubles that seem to be working against Déby, it should be noted that the trench dug around N'Djamena has fallen in and become a very sandy dry river bed. Even the rains have voted in favor of the rebellion.
Contrary to the expectations of all their faithful supporters, the rebels have not at all advanced in terms of unity. Meetings take place within meetings, small discussions are happening within small discussions, and still nothing concrete has emerged from all this. Contrary to the concern of supporters who are watching this situation unfold from a distance, the rebels are highly optimistic and assure them that they will act in a united fashion, no matter what form their actions may take. AMEN!
Mahamat Ahmat
N'Djamena
